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AAPL 2015Jan26

January 27, 2015 | Leave a Comment

AAPL 2015Jan15

市场在
当今混杂动荡不安的形势中
寻求的三大肯定

1。现金流,盈利与营收 的肯定
2。无债务后顾之忧 的肯定
3。无货币冲击 的肯定

#1 – Certainty of cashflow, profit revenue

#2 – Certainty of non-debt exposure

#3 – Certainty of currency stability

Against the backdrop of

#4 – Diverging macro policies of global central banks.

#5 – Escalating geopolitical unrest and tension.

#6 – Escalating regulatory restrictions and risks on capital and banking deposits.

#7 – Dollar safe haven theme.

Market yet to fully priced in Apple earnings drivers.

In FY2014Q1 (2013Q4),Apple reported $57.6b revenue, and sold 51m iPhones.
On 20th Oct 2014,Apple gave revenue guidance of $63.5b to $66.5b for FY2015Q1 (2014Q4).
Against $57.6b, $66.5b is difference of 15%.15% is roughly what the market is pricing in now.

 
FY2015Q1 (2014Q1) will exceed 15%, Question is, by how much?
  • Higher marginal profits from 128GB vs 64GB vs 32GB models.
  • iPhone 6 will outperform.
  • iPad will outperform.

Concerns of iPhone cannibalising iPad or declining sales are unfounded.

- First iPad was launched in 2010, the lengthier upgrade cycle is coming full circle.
- Growing user base, 50% of iPad buyers are new comers.
- Accelerating corporate adoption and commercial applications.
- Post Steve Ballmer, Microsoft Office now available on iOS for free.
- Forget Surface, forget Android tablet. Fragmentation impedes Critical Mass.
  • iMac will outperform.
Mac sales are gaining momentum amidst broader declines in PC shipments.
- Growing market share, users abandoning Windows in droves.
- Platform of choice among content creators.
- Required by iOS Apps developers.
  • Appstore will outperform
Unified Integrated Marketplace without boundaries.
Mobile, Internet of all things…
  • China Mobile
FY2014Q1 $57.6b, China Mobile not yet in picture.
  • Beats Electronics, LLC
Beats Electronics had FY2013 revenue of $1.5b
  • Misc – iCloud, Apple Pay, Apple TV
Can Foxconn and Pegatron live up to Apple’s calling?
We shall see…

 

January 15, 2015 | Leave a Comment

Revisiting AAPL

Revisiting AAPL

#1 Bottom Line
Same P/E; Different Earnings

#2 Top Line
Not Velocity, but Acceleration.
Not Growth, but ‘Change in Rate’ of Growth.

#3 Include or Exclude?

Factoring NET ‘Cash’ out of P/E.

$175.3B Cash, Investments, Receivables
Less $101.6B Total Liabilities
$ 73.7B
= $ 12.30 ‘Cash’ per share.

#4 Liquidity

Becoming Bond-Like

‘Twin’ Rotation: Bond? Equity; Premium Momentum? Value Growth

#5 Dollar Theme

Divergent monetary policies between FED, ECB and BOJ.
Divergent spreads between T-Bonds, Bunds and JGBs.
Divergent FX between US, Euro and Yen.

#6 AAPL Technicals

#7 Apple or Alibaba?
Earnings Calendar Arbitrage

Apple — Oct, Jan [iPhone6, Christmas] vs. Alibaba — Nov, Feb

Any final word?

Yes, hope for earnings disappointment tonight.
Otherwise…

PDF file: Revisiting AAPL v1.03 20141020


October 20, 2014 | Leave a Comment


The Cashflow Game – Get Paid to Wait

The Poker Game - Bluff, The Waiting Game - Eyeball Stare Blink, The Cashflow Game - Get paid to wait

February 5, 2009 | Leave a Comment



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